USDA Forecast Shows Sharp Drop in Kansas Wheat Crop as Salina Rainfall Runs Behind Normal
Kansas is facing one of its weakest wheat production forecasts in decades after new federal crop data showed a sharp expected decline in the 2026 winter wheat crop.
The USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report projects U.S. all-wheat production at 1.561 billion bushels, down 424 million bushels from last year. The report says the decline is tied to reduced harvested acreage and lower yield. Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.048 billion bushels, down 25% from last year, driven mainly by reduced Hard Red Winter wheat production.
National agriculture market reports described the projected U.S. wheat crop, if realized, as the lowest since 1972. For Kansas specifically, the latest USDA/NASS estimate places the state’s 2026 winter wheat crop at 214.6 million bushels, with 7 million acres planted, 5.8 million acres expected to be harvested, and an average yield forecast of 37 bushels per acre. That would be down 38.1% from the previous season.
Kansas’ 2025 wheat crop totaled 346.8 million bushels, with an average yield of 51 bushels per acre, according to USDA’s Kansas Wheat History report. The same report shows Kansas produced 201.25 million bushels in 2023 and 213.6 million bushels in 1989, putting the 2026 forecast near some of the lowest Kansas wheat production totals in modern records, though not below the 2023 crop.
The crop condition report helps explain the weaker forecast. For the week ending May 10, USDA’s Kansas Crop Progress and Condition report rated Kansas winter wheat 21% very poor, 30% poor, 32% fair, 16% good, and 1% excellent. That means just 17% of the crop was rated good or excellent. Winter wheat headed was at 86%, well ahead of both last year and the five-year average.
Locally, rainfall has also been running behind normal in Salina. The National Weather Service climate summary for Salina showed 4.57 inches of precipitation since Jan. 1, compared with a normal value of 7.84 inches through May 12. That leaves Salina 3.27 inches below normal for the year. Since March 1, Salina recorded 2.29 inches, compared with a normal value of 6.26 inches, a deficit of 3.97 inches.
County-level drought data also shows dry conditions have been a factor in Saline County. Drought.gov lists January through April 2026 as the 31st driest year-to-date period for Saline County over the past 132 years, with precipitation running 1.98 inches below normal for that period.
The lower wheat forecast matters beyond the field. Kansas remains the nation’s leading winter wheat state, and a smaller crop can affect grain elevators, local farm income, milling supply chains, transportation, and rural spending. For Saline County producers, the statewide forecast does not provide a county-by-county yield estimate, but the local rainfall deficit shows the same broader pressure being seen across much of Kansas: less moisture, faster crop development, and limited room for recovery before harvest.